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BTC Bitcoin's trend after the midterm elections: Historical data and current challenges
As the U.S. midterm elections approach, Bitcoin's historical performance generally dominates this period. However, analysts at XWIN Japan warned that past gains do not necessarily mean another rebound in the market. Their analysis shows that if ETF purchases continue, treasury bond yields cool, and post-election regulatory uncertainty is eliminated, Bitcoin (BTC) will face the test of narrow fluctuations.
Data revealed by midterm election records
XWIN Japan pointed out that since 1950, the S & P 500 index has risen in the 12 months after each US midterm election, with an average increase of 15.4%. In addition, Bitcoin rose by 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the 12 months after the midterm elections in 2014, 2018 and 2022, respectively.
But there is a key issue here. Bitcoin fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election, leaving Bitcoin with only three historical observations to refer to. Therefore, XWIN Japan cautiously stated: "Three observations cannot establish a reliable rule." Reduced political uncertainty may help increase risk appetite, but the election itself is not a direct cause of the rise in cryptocurrency prices.
XWIN Japan 在报告中写道：“大选后，请密切关注收益率是否稳定、买盘是否持续以及监管进展如何。”“政治缓解情绪可能利好 BTC，但持续的涨幅仍需支持性的市场条件。”不过，分析师们迅速指出，虽然历史提供了背景参考，但并不能提供保证。
目前，根据 CoinGecko 的数据，比特币价格约为 86,000 美元，24 小时内变化不大，7 天内上涨约 3%，一个月内上涨近 8%。尽管如此，相较于一年前，其价值已下跌 31%，且仍低于 126,000 美元的纪录高点约 32%。
分析师如何看待年底前的道路
这位“老大哥”加密货币在第三季度结束时上涨了 43%，而季度初时其价格尚不足 58,000 美元，这是该币种一年半以来的最低水平。Nexo Dispatch 的分析师 Iliya Kalchev 将这一运势的转变归功于债券市场，他指出，美国财政部在 8 月扩大了长期国债回购规模，随后现货 ETF 资金流转为正值。
鉴于中期选举定于第四季度举行，在过去 15 年中，有 9 年比特币在该时期结束时的价格高于期初，尽管中位数涨幅仅为 9% 左右。
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on October 28, which could affect the status of Bitcoin when Americans head to the polls in more than a week. She also believes that US$87,500 is the main resistance level for BTC, and a break through this level will increase the possibility of short squeeze; and if it breaks below the support level of US$82,000 to US$82,500, it may trigger a price fall below US$80,000.
