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BTC 
LEO 关键事实
据 K33 Research 分析，美国政府钱包本周将约 17,700 枚比特币（BTC）转移至 Coinbase Prime。这是自 2015 年 11 月以来其持仓量最大的单周减持幅度。
CoinMarketCap 数据显示，比特币周四跌至 80,337 美元，截至美东时间周五上午 10:12 回升至 82,792 美元，24 小时内上涨 0.6%。
K33 预计美国政府直接抛售的可能性较小，但 Bitfinex 在法庭上声称拥有约 109,700 枚 BTC 的追索权。一旦该交易所收回这些资产，预计可能抛售多达 87,782 枚。
政府究竟转移了什么？
K33 研究主管 Vetle Lunde 指出，本周大部分资金流入了美国法警局（US Marshals Service）的托管账户。其中，仅有约 1,200 枚来自受害者案件的比特币看似准备出售，而更大规模的供应量则与 Bitfinex 相关。
Lunde 将本周的资金流动解读为“托管步骤”，而非直接的市场抛售行为。
“从政府钱包转移到 Coinbase Prime 并不意味着立即出售，”Lunde 在 X 平台写道。Coinbase Prime 既是法警局的交易合作伙伴，也是其托管方，因此存入该地址可能意味着即将出售，也可能仅仅是为了存储。此外，2025 年 3 月的一项行政命令禁止出售放入战略比特币储备中的没收比特币。
Galaxy Research data also showed that government wallets began sending funds to Coinbase Prime on Tuesday, with Wednesday being the largest single-day outflow from a tagged government address and the highest level since December 2024. On Thursday, a wallet holding funds recovered from the 2016 Bitfinex hack sent the largest transfer of the week.
Is Washington selling? Mainly custody adjustments
Lunde wrote that the main deposit address received coins from multiple unrelated cases, indicating that the Bailiff Service is consolidating its positions. About 16,500 of these coins belong to the Bitfinex case and are expected to be returned to the exchange in physical form.
As for coins from the FTX and HashFlare cases, they may be sold to compensate victims in cash. Since these assets have not yet been completely confiscated, the "no-sale" rule on reserves does not apply.
Galaxy Research also found a longer-term pattern in government records: "Since 2020, seizures far exceed sales."
Who is selling? New holders, many at a loss.
CryptoQuant data shows that recent buyers are also one of the main sellers. Within 24 hours, short-term holders sent 29,100 BTC to the exchange at a loss, the highest level since June.
The company said government transfers offset the market correction pressure, which itself has accumulated large amounts of unrealized profits. Other pressures also emerged on the same day: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he expected further interest rates, and U.S. spot bitcoin funds experienced outflows for the second consecutive day. At the same time, as liquidation volumes climbed, leveraged long positions were forced to be closed.
Where are the real supply risks? Bitfinex's court argument
Lunde's estimate was based on Bitfinex's court argument, which he traced back to a court opinion in April 2025. The exchange has committed to using 80% of the recovered funds to repurchase and destroy its UNUS SED LEO (LEO) tokens within 18 months.
Lunde pointed out that the claims process typically takes one to three years, and the case has been in progress for about 20 months. The two tranches of money moved this week were part of coins traced by Bitfinex experts, which Lunde believes is a sign that the claims process may be advancing.
The 18-month countdown only starts after Bitfinex actually receives the coins.
CryptoQuant wrote on the X platform: "The key price point to focus on is US$74,600, which is the realization price for short-term holders. Holding this level maintains the integrity of the early bull market structure; if you fall below this level, you risk a deeper correction."
