Bitcoin continues to weaken in the October market-how much more can it fall? expert interpretation

Bitcoin started poorly in October, and experts warned against viewing this month as a reliable bottom.

Bitcoin has been in a downward trend since the beginning of October. Historically, October has usually been a "strong performance" month for cryptocurrency leaders, often referred to as the "Uptober"(October of Rising). However, several experts warned investors that October should not be regarded as a reliable bottom for Bitcoin and predicted that there could still be further downward pressure in the future.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin has hit a low of US$80,427 in the past week and is currently trading just below US$83,000, a decline of 4.1% in the past seven days. On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, users believe that there is a 79% chance that Bitcoin will close above $82,000 this week, while the chance of breaking through $84,000 is only 28%.

Luke Deans, senior research assistant at Bitwise Europe, told the media: "From the perspective of market structure, the US$83,000 region is still a level worthy of attention. This area combines the average cost base of ETFs with previous higher technical highs and has been tested repeatedly in recent weeks."

Bitcoin fell below the US$83,000 mark early Thursday morning and is currently trying to recover. Deans pointed out that the market's response to this trend will be "informative" because if the rebound is sluggish, lower technical support targets should be considered.

Ananda Banerjee, founder and chief quantitative researcher at analytics firm Charlie Quant Lab, also said he believes $77,000 is the strongest support level. He said that indicators on the chain showed that a large amount of Bitcoin supply was bought at that price. Deans agreed that the average bid price for active investors (or the real market average) is close to $77,000.

However, Deans also pointed to lower support: the short-term holder cost base is around $74,000, which represents the average acquisition price for new market participants. In addition, the 200-day moving average is at $72,000, which he believes provides an independent technical reference together with on-chain data.

Deans added: "Through this perspective, even if Bitcoin falls significantly from its current levels, it may still be within what we call a 'constructive risk appetite' structure." "Entering the $72,000 to $77,000 range would represent a strong re-test of the broader transition area," he said.

If the area is successfully defended, he said that the range previously used as resistance will transform into support-a positive signal. On the contrary, failure to hold the area may "destroy the current market structure."

Despite this, Bitcoin tried to break through $87,000 earlier this week, but failed. Bitfinex analysts pointed out that the failure was "mainly driven by futures positions rather than spot demand." They added: "Spot demand remains the missing link." Data showed that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$241.1 million during the week from September 28 to October 2, compared with an inflow of US$2.39 billion the previous week. "The average ETF investor is back to break-even for the first time since January, a level at which inflows have historically been slow."

Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum Bank, also told the media that low spot trading volume limits the price trend of Bitcoin. Bitfinex analysts believe that Bitcoin's consolidation range is between $84,000 and its annual opening price of $87,722. Analysts said the September consumer price index (CPI) data released on October 14 and the recovery of ETF funds may end this consolidation range.

According to ETF tracking data, the Bitcoin ETF lost $484.9 million on Wednesday, the largest one-day outflow since June 25. BlackRock's IBIT was the hardest hit, with an outflow of $207.7 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC with an outflow of $105.1 million. Experts believe that for a successful reversal of Uptober, the flow of funds must be reversed-but as the fund continued to flow out of $244 million on Thursday, the overall trend remained downward.

So, is "Uptober" over? Most experts surveyed were reluctant to announce the cancellation of "Uptober" just because of a one-week decline. But they warned that investment decisions should not be based on over-hyped month names, but on fundamentals.

Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen, said: "Historical evidence supports the strong performance in October." "Since 2013, Bitcoin's median return in October has been about 14%, and 10 of the past 13 October months have closed positive," he noted.

He added: "But ultimately, liquidity, positions, macro conditions and potential demand are more important drivers than specific dates."