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BTC Bitcoin's rebound is strong, but liquidity still lags behind
Bitcoin's recent recovery has increased significantly, but Darkfost's latest analysis points out that market liquidity still lags behind the price recovery. In the past two months, bitcoin prices have risen about 40% from a July low of $58,500 to once approach $82,000, although spot demand remains relatively weak.
Worrying weak signals
According to Darkfost's latest data, the 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta remains in the neutral range. However, the situation in the futures market is different, and buyers clearly have the upper hand.
This is also confirmed by the lack of stronger capital inflows in exchange stablecoin reserves, especially Binance. At the peak of the current cycle, Binance's stablecoin reserves hit a platform record high of more than US$50 billion. But starting in October, this trend has reversed sharply, with reserves falling by nearly $7 billion.
During the most severe stage of the correction period, investor demand shrank severely, causing the 90-day rate of change in the market value of stablecoins in the currency security reserve to drop to-17%. Although the situation has improved since then, the recovery has been limited. Currently, the indicator has rebounded to-1.6%, and Binance's stablecoin reserves have increased by US$1.6 billion in the past month.
Darfost believes this is a positive sign of short-term development, but not enough to show a substantial return to liquidity. At the same time, Bitcoin's momentum has increased significantly, and the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 67. Both the 7th and 21st exponential moving averages (EMA) have turned upward and are back on the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025.
Analysts added that a clean breakthrough of the US$80,000 mark could be a key level to attract a more determined return to liquidity. As long as Bitcoin remains above US$74,000, its bullish structure remains intact (according to Daan Crypto Trades analysis), and the next major test level is US$83,000. Analysts pointed out that the market is currently in a state of sideways volatility, forming a compressed pattern that may trigger large fluctuations once one party breaks the balance. A breakthrough of $83,000 would strengthen the upward trend and open the door to larger gains; a loss of support would weaken the current bullish trend.
Outlook for future trends
In the past week, the positions of the Bitcoin Whales have remained almost unchanged, holding approximately 5.23 million bitcoins. As the market is about to enter a period of intensive macro and policy events that may trigger sharp fluctuations, this lack of substantial accumulation or selling is noteworthy.
The first major test will be the U.S. producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) reports. As investors reassess their expectations for the Fed's next interest-rate decision, the latter may have greater weight. Although most economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged, current market pricing suggests a 60% probability of a September rate rise.
The crypto market also faces an important political catalyst: On September 15, the Senate is expected to vote to advance the CLARITY Act. The next day will be the Fed's rate decision, Kevin Warsh's press conference and updated economic forecasts, followed by the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision to close the week.
