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BTC 
ETH 摩根大通：2026年约500亿美元流入数字资产，ETF需求与期货仓位推动第四季度积极势头
核心要点：
- 摩根大通预计，年初至今加密货币资金流入量接近500亿美元，相当于年化增速约660亿美元，高于其在5月份预估的520亿美元水平。
- 第三季度，随着企业国库增持和风险投资（VC）资金驱动上半年大部分流入，ETF资金流向和期货持仓状况均有所改善。
- 比特币（BTC）矿工今年净卖出额约为18亿美元。
资金流向转变
由Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou领导的摩根大通分析师团队在周三发布的报告中提出了上述估算。他们指出，当前的年化资金流入速度仍大致为去年水平的一半。该模型综合考量了加密货币基金资金流向、期货活动、风险投资融资、矿工行为以及企业国库采购情况，并新增了对私人国库、私人矿工及政府相关实体的统计。这一更广泛的衡量指标揭示了需求结构的显著变化。
In the first half of the year,"Strategy"'s bitcoin purchases dominated the capital flow picture, while venture capital financing in the crypto field was also active, while ETF outflows in May and June put pressure on the market. After entering August, the flow of ETF funds has improved and turned positive in 2026; however, if calculated from the market down cycle starting on October 10, 2025, the flow of ETF funds is still in a negative state.
Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) futures positions traded in CME Group have risen in the past two months, with Bitcoin prices breaking past previous peaks and Ethereum approaching its October 2025 high. At the same time, offshore leverage ratios remain above historical averages and trend-following traders are re-establishing long positions.
JPMorgan's outlook for the fourth quarter
Panigirtzoglou's team said the shift in capital flows in the third quarter suggests increased participation by retail and institutional investors and is "creating positive capital inflow momentum for the fourth quarter." This is critical because although the annualized inflow rate still lags behind 2025 levels, ETF and futures capital flows reflect the needs of a wider range of market participants.
自2024年以来，风险投资融资状况有所改善，但资本正集中于规模更大、数量更少的几轮融资中。同时，上市国库公司正将融资方式从债务转向具有定期利息和股息义务的优先股。代币化技术因其商业应用前景吸引了更多风险投资的关注。此外，部分公开上市的矿业公司正通过出售资产来资助人工智能（AI）基础设施建设。
总体而言，资金背景已从上半年的集中买入转变为第三季度更为混合的市场格局。然而，由于累计ETF资金流仍低于2025年10月10日市场下跌前的水平，复苏尚不完整。这一差距在一定程度上抑制了摩根大通发出的强烈第四季度看涨信号。
