Bitcoin is becoming unpopular? Assets are changing as gold and silver prices fluctuate.

当黄金一举站上4500美元、白银年内涨幅超过140%，全球避险资金正用真金白银投票时，被寄予“数字黄金”厚望的比特币却显得格外安静。数据显示，在地缘风险升温、降息预期反复、主权债务压力加大的背景下，资金更倾向流向有千年共识的贵金属，而比特币仍被不少机构视为“高波动风险资产”，短期难以承担避险锚的角色。

比特币与黄金的比率已降至19，创下2023年11月以来最低水平，较今年1月下跌50%;比特币与白银的比率更是降至1104，创2023年9月以来最低。

数据背后，是贵金属市场2025年史诗级上涨——黄金价格触及4524.30美元/盎司，年涨幅70%;白银价格创下72美元/盎司历史新高，全年暴涨143%。

一、市场异动

● 2025年末的全球金融市场呈现一幅分裂图景。传统贵金属市场狂欢不止，黄金与白银价格一路飙升，不断刷新历史纪录。

● 与此同时，曾经备受追捧的加密货币代表比特币却显得黯然失色。截至12月底，比特币价格报87498美元，年内下跌8%，较10月份126000美元的峰值下跌约30%。

● This deviation is particularly evident in the ratio between Bitcoin and precious metals. The ratio of Bitcoin to silver has dropped to 1104, the lowest point since September 2023. The ratio of Bitcoin to gold has also fallen to 19, the lowest level since November 2023. The significant decline in these two key ratios is not accidental. Since May 2025, the ratio of Bitcoin to silver has decreased by 67%; since January this year, the ratio of Bitcoin to gold has dropped by 50%.

Second, the ratio of Bitcoin to gold and silver

The gap between Bitcoin and precious metals can be clearly seen through several key figures:

● Comparison of price performance in 2025:

– Gold: Increased by 70% during the year, reaching a record high of $4524.30 per ounce.

– Silver: Surged by 143% during the year, reaching a record high of $72 per ounce.

– Bitcoin: Decreased by 8% during the year, marking a 30% decrease from the October peak.

● Changes in the ratio of Bitcoin to precious metals:

– Ratio of Bitcoin to silver: 1104 (the lowest since September 2023), having decreased by 67% since May.

– Ratio of Bitcoin to gold: 19 (the lowest since November 2023), having decreased by 50% since January.

– Compared to the bear market low in 2022: At that time, the ratio of Bitcoin to silver was 680, and the ratio of Bitcoin to gold was 9.

● Market structure data:

Approximately 33%-33.5% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is in a deficit state, with daily trading volumes exceeding 5 million BTC on major exchanges like Binance.

Third, macro-level reasons

The divergence in the performance of various assets is due to changes in the global economic environment and the differences in the characteristics of different assets.

● The global macroeconomy is facing numerous uncertainties. Rising geopolitical risks, persistent inflation pressures, and the unclear direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy all contribute to the current market conditions. In such circumstances, the advantages of traditional safe-haven assets like gold become more apparent. Gold has a reputation built over centuries, and its tangible nature makes it a popular choice during times of turmoil.

● Central banks around the world have continued to increase their gold reserves throughout the year. Retail investors, after the decline in Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, turned to physical precious metals instead, further boosting demand for gold.

● At the same time, Bitcoin’s status as a “digital gold” is facing challenges. Although supporters have long hoped that a weakening dollar and interest rate cuts would drive up Bitcoin prices, the market seems to prefer tangible traditional assets when it comes to safe-haven investments.

IV. Structural Differences

The difference in performance between gold and Bitcoin stems in part from the fundamental differences between the two assets.

● Gold’s status as a safe-haven asset is based on its long-term historical performance and institutional trust. Multiple studies in 2025 have confirmed that gold provides more stable protection against various macroeconomic shocks.

● In contrast, Bitcoin’s price behavior tends to be more similar to that of high-risk assets. There is a positive correlation between Bitcoin and traditional stock markets, which means Bitcoin failed to lead the safe-haven investment trends this time.

● 白银的表现则受到双重因素推动。除了作为贵金属的避险属性外，白银在光伏、电子产品等工业领域的需求创下纪录。

供应链中替代品的稀缺加剧了白银供应紧张，形成了宏观避险与产业需求的双重支撑，这是比特币完全不具备的结构性优势。比特币缺乏工业用途，其需求主要集中在金融投机与链上结算领域，缺乏实物需求作为价格缓冲。

五、资金动向

● 市场资金流向的变化进一步加剧了比特币与贵金属之间的表现差距。机构投资者的资产配置调整尤为明显，对冲基金正在从加密货币重新分配至贵金属。

● 黄金ETF在2025年第四季度吸引了约12亿美元的资金流入。与此同时，比特币ETF的资金流动已转为负值，支撑力明显减弱。链上数据揭示了比特币持有者结构的变化。根据监测，约33%-33.5%的比特币流通供应目前处于账面亏损状态，对应规模超过700万枚比特币。

● 这种大范围的浮亏削弱了短期内的买盘意愿，也改变了市场筹码分布的弹性。与此同时，部分链上地址选择了逆势增持策略。

The new addresses created by Binance have recently accumulated approximately 1,600 bitcoins each, indicating a funding behavior that is completely different from that of individual investors. This type of strategy, characterized by “concentrated accumulation and dispersed holding of coins,” is typically seen as a long-term allocation strategy used by institutional or high-net-worth investors.

In the future, for Bitcoin to overcome its current relative weakness, several key conditions need to be met. Clarification of regulatory environments could encourage institutional investors to reallocate their assets into Bitcoin.

Additionally, the recovery of individual investor sentiment is also important. Currently, market sentiment is cautious, and the presence of many positions with substantial losses undermines short-term buying willingness. Changes in the macro environment could provide opportunities for Bitcoin. If specific macroeconomic shocks occur, Bitcoin’s anti-censorship capabilities and programmable features might highlight its unique value.

The extreme performance of the silver market may have made it relatively crowded. If events such as changes in Federal Reserve policy occur, this could lead to fluctuations in the precious metals market, thereby indirectly affecting Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered Bank has recently adjusted its price targets for Bitcoin. It has lowered the target price for the end of 2025 from $200,000 to $100,000, and the target price for 2026 from $300,000 to $150,000. This reflects institutional investors’ re-evaluation of medium to short-term risks.

● Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, noted that the “Christmas market” at the end of the year typically involves investors selling off those who “lost” the previous year, while buying into those who “won” to embrace the new year. However, he believes that with more long-term capital flowing into the market by early 2026, Bitcoin may see an opportunity for a rebound.

● Looking at the performance of other sectors on the blockchain, it seems that overall risk appetite has not declined systematically. According to market forecasts, within about 55 days of its launch, the cumulative trading volume exceeded $10 billion, indicating that funds with high-risk preferences remain active.

While gold reached over $4,500 per ounce, and silver increased by 143% over the past year, 33% of Bitcoin supply is currently suffering losses on the balance sheet.

The ratio between Bitcoin and silver has fallen by 67% since May, reaching a 15-month low. The market’s behavior suggests that, in the face of genuine避险需求, the narrative of “digital gold” still needs to bridge the gap between trust and practicality. The outcome of this asset rotation could potentially redefine the paradigm of value storage for the next decade.