The ebbing of liquidity: Revealing the secrets of Christmas market trends and the shift in market st

As Christmas approaches, the market has not seen the usual “holiday-driven trading activity”. Data shows that both spot and derivatives trading volumes on major exchanges have declined simultaneously. The net inflow of stablecoins has slowed for several weeks, indicating that funds are now preferring to remain cautious. BTC and ETH remain stable within their key ranges, while the liquidity of altcoins has rapidly decreased. Short-term markets, which once relied on emotional impulses, are now struggling to continue. This quiet Christmas market season is sending a clear signal to the market: liquidity benefits are fading. By 2026, the crypto market may shift from being driven by emotions to a new phase dominated by structure and efficiency.

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total value of cryptocurrencies is $2.95 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.1%, or $1.74 trillion. The value of stablecoins is $318.4 billion, showing a decrease of 0.28% over the past 7 days. USDT accounts for 60.54% of the total value of stablecoins.

Among the top 200 projects listed on CoinMarketCap, most have seen declines, while a few have increased in value. Specifically, BTC has decreased by 1.4% in the past 7 days, ETH by 1.89%, SOL by 2.84%. NIGHT has increased by 22.03% in the past 7 days, while H has increased by 28.88%.

This week, there was a net outflow of $589 million from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, and $80.3 million from Ethereum ETFs.

Market predictions (December 29th–January 2nd):

Currently, the RSI index is at 51.46 (neutral range), the Fear-Greed Index is at 22 (below last week’s level, indicating fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is at 37 (neutral, unchanged from last week).

The main driving force behind recent market movements is the cleansing effect of leverage due to scarce liquidity:

● Event-driven factors:平安夜(12月24日)前后，市场在无重大负面消息的情况下出现闪崩，比特币45分钟内急跌2300美元，引发超6600万美元多头爆仓。这揭示了在节假日期间，市场深度不足，极易因大额订单或杠杆清算产生剧烈波动。

● 资金面：正如之前所提，现货比特币和以太坊ETF在节前持续录得资金净流出，削弱了机构买盘的支撑力度，使得市场更脆弱。

● 技术面：三大资产目前均处于关键支撑区域上方进行震荡。BTC能否守住85,000美元、ETH能否在2,900美元附近企稳、SOL能否维持在120美元以上，是判断市场能否止跌的关键。

BTC核心区间：$83,000-89,000

ETH核心区间：$2,750-3,050

SOL核心区间：$115-130

如图所示，当前比特币长期持有者已实现利润率(SOPR)为1.53。在典型的牛市环境中，此数值处于低位区间;若置身熊市，则属中性水平，远未触及市场最恐慌的熊市谷底。

本次行情所处的宏观格局已发生根本性转变：加密货币正从被全球多国限制，转向获得美国等主流市场的立法认可;市场的主导权也已从早期的矿工群体，逐步移交至华尔街大型机构手中。

Facing a completely new market structure, we should neither simply apply the old “four-year cycle” theory, nor should we blindly continue with the mindset of a bull market. Looking ahead to 2026, the market will be filled with both risks and opportunities.

The risk lies in the fact that, judging from historical cycles, the traditional bear market period has already begun.

On the other hand, there are opportunities: it is very likely that the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates, and global liquidity is expected to continue to flow into the market. Additionally, asset management firms and listed companies are still increasing their holdings, providing strong structural buying pressure on the market.

Therefore, even if the market enters a period of adjustment, its duration may be shorter, and the bottom will receive strong support. Based on this, we boldly predict that the price range at the bottom of this bear market cycle will be between $50,000 and $60,000.

Get notified

Review the key events of the week

1. On December 21st, regarding the “50 million USDT phishing attack,” the Ethereum Community Foundation posted on the X platform, calling for the cessation of using truncated addresses (e.g., 0xbaf4b1aF...B6495F8b5). Address information should be displayed completely; hiding parts of an address can lead to unnecessary risks. Some wallets and block explorers also have security issues with certain UI options, but these problems can indeed be resolved.

2. On December 24th, according to market data, U.S. stocks continued to rise, with the S&P 500 index approaching 6900 points, just less than 10 points away from its historical closing record. Additionally, the Dow Jones index rose by 0.18%, and the Nasdaq index rose by 0.27%.

3. On December 24th, this Friday, options on Bitcoin worth approximately $23.6 billion will expire. This represents one of the largest expiries in Bitcoin’s history. Analysts suggest that this expiration date is particularly significant, with a generally bullish trend. The maximum price at which option buyers can lose the most, while sellers can profit the most, is $96,000. This will likely reinforce the upward trend in prices.

4. According to Cointelegraph, Stani Kulechov, the founder of Aave, has recently been questioned for investing over $10 million in AAVE tokens. Some crypto communities believe that this move was intended to increase his voting power in a key governance proposal.

5. On December 25th, the market value of USD1 exceeded $3 billion, reaching $3.011 billion, an increase of 7.68% in just 24 hours. Previously, Binance introduced a savings product denominated in USD1, with an annual yield of up to 20%.

6. From December 26th until the end of 2025, the number of blockchain-related mentions filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission increased significantly. In August, there were approximately 8,000 such mentions, and this number remained high in November. Mentiones related to Bitcoin dominated this growth, accounting for the majority of such filings. The filing and amendments related to Bitcoin spot ETFs continued, and traditional asset management companies also expanded their cryptocurrency products in 2025.

Macroeconomic

1. As of December 20th, the number of people filing unemployment claims in the United States was 214,000, compared to the expected 224,000.

2. On December 23rd, according to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch” data, after today’s release of US macroeconomic figures, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year has dropped to 13.3%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged remains at 86.7%. Last week, the probability of a rate cut in January by the Federal Reserve reached 31%. After adjusting for inflation, the annualized quarterly growth rate of US GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%. This represents a significant increase in GDP growth, the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2023. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March next year is 54.4%. The probability of a total cut of 25 basis points is 40.7%, while the probability of a total cut of 50 basis points is 4.9%.

ETFs

According to statistics, between December 22nd and 26th, there was a net outflow of $589 million from US Bitcoin spot ETFs. As of December 26th, GBTC (Gray Matter) has had a total outflow of $25.14 billion. Currently, it holds $14.504 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $67.652 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is currently $116.673 billion.

There was also a net outflow of $80.3 million from US Ethereum spot ETFs.

Predicting the Future

Project Progress

1. Chain Games company ChronoForge announced that it would cease operations on December 30th due to “numerous obstacles,” including funding shortages. This forced the founders to pay out of pocket to support development efforts since July, and they also laid off 80 employees. “After discussions with the Rift Foundation, we concluded that it was impossible to continue operating the game or tokens. Therefore, ChronoForge will cease services on December 30th, 2025.”

2. WLFI announced that its BNB to USD1 transfer service, which currently has zero fees, will be extended until December 31. Users can now transfer funds, withdraw money, and cross-chain transfer USDC and USD1 with zero fees, using both the CEX and wallet services, as well as cross-chain bridges.

3. BYEX is scheduled to cease operations soon. Users are encouraged to transfer their assets before December 31.

4. Rabby Wallet announced that the backend API for Rabby Desktop will stop serving on December 31. This change will not affect users’ assets, as they remain completely safe and can still be accessed through the Rabby plugin.

5. StarkWare has established a $1 million research fund focused on studying the advantages and disadvantages of implementing OP_CAT on Bitcoin. The deadline for submitting research proposals is January 1, 2025.

Important Events

1. The fourth round of compensation from FTX is expected to begin in January 2026. The deadline for confirming eligibility may be December, but the exact date will be announced later.

2. The regulation bill regarding encrypted assets in Turkmenistan will take effect on January 1. This legislation aims to attract investment and promote digitalization. The bill outlines the regulatory framework for creating, storing, issuing, using, and circulating virtual assets within Turkmenistan, as well as defining their legal and economic status.

3. The Basel Committee plans to implement a risk disclosure framework for bank-issued encrypted assets on January 1, 2026. This framework includes standardized forms and templates for reporting risks related to encrypted assets. These disclosures aim to improve information availability and support market discipline.

4、瑞士涵盖加密资产的税务信息自动交换法案预计将于2026年1月1日起实施，这一扩展意味着金融机构将被要求收集和报告与加密资产相关的客户信息;

5、英国政府将于2026年1月起实施加密税收新规，严查避税行为。根据该指南，在英国运营的加密交易所须开始收集所有英国客户的详细交易记录和完整信息。HMRC将利用收集到的数据交叉核对用户的纳税申报单以确保税务合规，违规者将面临制裁。此外，英国的新指导方针与经合组织(OECD)的加密资产报告框架保持一致，以提高数字资产市场的透明度;

6、英国税务海关总署要求加密公司从2026年起报告每笔客户交易，不遵守规定或报告不准确的用户可能会被处以每位用户最高300英镑(398.4美元)的罚款;

7、1月3日，美国将公布至12月27日当周初请失业金人数(万人)。

代币解锁

1、Jupiter(JUP)将于12月28日解锁5347万枚代币，价值约1070万美元，占流通量的1.73%;

2、Kamino(KMNO)将于12月30日解锁2.3亿枚代币，价值约1169万美元，占流通量的5.35%;

3、EigenCloud(EIGEN)将于1月1日解锁3682万枚代币，价值约1431万美元，占流通量的9.74%;

4. Ethena (ENA) will release 40.63 million tokens on January 2nd, valued at approximately $8.64 million, representing 0.56% of the total supply.

About Us

As the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, Hotcoin Research is committed to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for investors. We provide you with weekly insights and in-depth reports to help you understand market trends. Through our exclusive program “Hot Coins Selection” (which involves dual filtering processes using AI and expert reviews), we identify potential assets for you, thereby reducing the cost of trial and error. Every week, our researchers also engage in live broadcasts to discuss current trends and predict future developments. We believe that emotional support and professional guidance can help more investors navigate through market fluctuations and seize the opportunities presented by Web3.