The Strategy involves purchasing 10,000 BTC in a single week. How many more BTC will we be able to b

During the period when Bitcoin prices were fluctuating downward and market sentiment was cautious, Strategy once again provided strong “counter-signals”. In the past two weeks, Strategy has increased its holdings of Bitcoin by more than 10,000 units, with a total investment exceeding $900 million. Even under the pressure of its mNAV falling below 1, Strategy still chose to increase its holdings rather than reduce them. As of now, Strategy’s holding of Bitcoin has reached nearly 670,000 units, with a total market value exceeding $50 billion. This continuous buying behavior is becoming an important indicator for assessing potential long-term market lows.

This action also triggers deeper thoughts in the market: With such large-scale continuous purchases, how much Bitcoin is actually available for trading in the market?

Although the theoretical limit for Bitcoin is 21 million units, the actual amount that can be circulated is much smaller. Currently, approximately 19.96 million units have been mined, accounting for 95% of the total supply. The remaining unissued units are only about 1.04 million units. The current block reward is 3.125 BTC, with approximately 450 units being added daily. This process will continue until 2028, when the reward will be halved again. At this rate, the last unit of Bitcoin is expected to be mined around 2140.

However, what truly determines market supply is not the unissued new coins, but rather the portion of the existing supply that is actually tradable.

据统计，超过30%的比特币长期未发生移动，被视为“沉睡持仓”;另有约20%疑似永久丢失。此外，包括上市公司、ETF、国家基金在内的机构与公共持仓占比持续攀升，这些BTC大多退出高频流通。此外，交易所的比特币存量已降至数年低点，意味着可供即时出售的“浮筹”正在快速收缩。在巨鲸悄然吸筹、长期持有者惜售的背景下，市场流动性正面临结构性收紧。

针对比特币真实可流通量的问题，加密分析师Murphy进行了系统梳理。Odaily星球日报在其基础上进一步整合数据与观点，试图呈现这一稀缺性叙事背后的数据全貌——当买入力量持续而可售供给萎缩，市场格局或许正在悄然转变。

长期持有者的“制度化囤积”，正在接管流通筹码

长期持有者当前已成为比特币市场中最重要的结构性力量。根据Glassnode统计，这一群体合计持有约1435万枚BTC，占流通供应量的比例超70%。

进一步拆解。当前持有BTC“非零余额”的企业一共有153家，其中最核心的是29家上市公司，合计持有比特币108.2万枚(其中Other持有54,331枚)。而在这29家上市公司中，Strategy一家公司就持有67.1万枚BTC，占比高达62%。

如果再结合URPD(UTXO Realized Price Distribution)数据，Strategy的密集买入区间正好就是BTC筹码结构中堆积最密集的区域，大致集中在8万至11.8万美元之间。这意味着，在筹码高位区间的大量换手中，Strategy确实起到了重要作用。这也是为什么MSTR和ETF会被认为是本轮牛市周期的源动力。

这里要注意的是，在10月6日的时候，持有“BTC非零余额”的企业还仅仅只有67家，而随着BTC的深度回调，该数量突然激增，目前已经有153家了。这是否意味着，在价格下行过程中，有新的企业级玩家正在悄然入场?

除了实体企业储备的BTC之外，截至目前，现货比特币ETF共计持有约131.1万枚BTC。其中，位居前三的分别是：贝莱德约77.7万枚，富达约20.2万枚，灰度约16.7万枚。

此外，各国政府持有的比特币总量约为61.5万枚。其中，美国政府以32.5万枚位居第一;而排名第二的，是持有约19万枚BTC的中国政府。需要说明的是，中国政府从未以官方形式披露过相关持仓，这一数据主要来自Glassnode，其统计口径与实际情况仍存在不确定性。

In addition, there are approximately 3.409 million bitcoins that have been held for more than 10 years without being moved anywhere. This portion of assets includes both cold wallets from early exchanges and those truly “believing in the project”. However, it’s also important to note that a significant amount of these coins may no longer be available in circulation due to lost private keys or the death of their owners. This includes around 1 million BTC that are generally considered to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.

How much of the mined BTC is actually “unavailable for purchase”?

Murphy has provided a more detailed analysis of this data. Unlike traditional bank accounts, Bitcoin relies entirely on private keys to prove ownership. Once a private key is lost or becomes inaccessible, the corresponding bitcoin becomes permanently unavailable for transfer or spending. Although these coins are still recorded on the blockchain, they are essentially destroyed permanently from an economic perspective.

If we break down the circulating supply by date range, each date range refers to the creation date of UTXOs. It can be seen that the peak value of BTC with a “age” of 2010–2014 occurred in December 2014. After that, the value dropped rapidly (due to spending). Since January 2019, there has been almost no significant change in its value.

These ancient bitcoins that remain today were likely lost by most of their holders, aside those who truly believe in the project. According to Murphy’s estimates, this proportion is at least 50%, meaning there are at least 1.06 million such coins left.

There is also a group of “Supreme Kings” coins, with the creation date being in 2009. After December 2011, these coins were hardly ever moved again. As of today, this address group owns 1.08 million BTC.

In other words, there are at least approximately 2.14 million BTC, and it’s possible that these coins can no longer be moved at all.

The actual amount of BTC in circulation is

. If we look at the most direct indicator, which is the balance in exchange wallets, it seems that the number of BTC held in these wallets has decreased significantly, reaching a new low since 2023.

In other words, while the demand side continues to increase, the supply side is shrinking continuously. The amount of BTC available for trading is also becoming smaller and smaller.