随着加密货币抛售，SOL多头杠杆交易者消失：下一个价格是200美元吗？

The recent severe market fluctuations have caused many investors to worry, and SOL has not been spared either. With the overall crypto market experiencing a sell-off, many long-term leveraged traders have withdrawn from the market, causing market sentiment to cool down instantly. The capital flow dynamics in the Aster ecosystem, along with the uncertainties in the US macroeconomy, combined with overall market pressure, make the trend of SOL even more unpredictable. Currently, many people are concerned about whether the continuous inflow of traditional financial resources will be able to support the price of Solana above $200.

Key points

● The financing rate for SOL indicates cautious sentiment, but historical patterns suggest potential short-term price increases.

● Although financial strategies and fundamentals still provide support, declining network usage and competition are putting pressure on SOL.

Solana’s native token, SOL

On Tuesday, the price of Bitcoin dropped to a two-week low of $213, reflecting the increasing risk-averse sentiment in the crypto market. After the US interest rate cut on Wednesday, initial optimism quickly dissipated, as concerns about the labor market and inflation pressures resurfaced.

Data from CoinGlass shows that SOL’s price decreased by 12% within 48 hours, leading to the liquidation of $112 million in long positions using leverage. This sudden pullback has made traders question whether this trend indicates further downward movement, or if it represents excessive panic in the context of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions.

周二，SOL 永续合约的融资利率徘徊在接近零的水平，凸显了杠杆多头仓位的需求有限。在中性市场条件下，该指标通常在 6% 至 12% 之间，这意味着买家需要付费才能维持敞口。上一次过度乐观的时期发生在 8 月 14 日，当时融资利率飙升至 30%，表明看涨杠杆率较高。

当 SOL 周四短暂触及 253 美元时，融资利率保持中性，表明交易员不愿进一步增加看涨押注。不过，衍生品市场缺乏杠杆需求并不一定意味着完全看跌预期。

8 月 19 日，SOL 融资利率在五天内下跌 13.5%后转为负值。然而，176 美元的水平最终被证明是一个强劲的切入点，SOL 在 8 月 24 日反弹至 206 美元。此前也出现过类似的趋势：8 月 4 日的负融资利率之后，六天内下跌了 19%，这也成为了买入机会，因为到 8 月 14 日，SOL 反弹了 25%。

SOL 价格下跌与网络活动减少和新竞争对手的出现相一致

SOL 市场热情低迷的部分原因可以解释为 Solana 网络活动量的下降，因为交易者越来越多地将注意力转向 Aster 上的衍生品交易 。该平台由 YZi Labs(前身为币安实验室)在 BNB 链上推出，标榜自己不追求最大可提取价值，并得到了币安创始人赵长鹏的公开认可。

In the past seven days, the number of active addresses on Solana has decreased by 28%, while network fees have dropped by 15%. In contrast, Ethereum’s fees increased by 28% during the same period, while BNB Chain saw an increase of 74%. The emergence of competitors like Hyperliquid poses challenges to Solana’s existing advantages. This is especially true since Aster’s documentation mentions the development of its own blockchain.

However, with more and more companies adopting strategies to establish strategic cryptocurrency reserves, the downside risks for SOL may be limited. A recent initiative came from Fitell Corp (FTEL) in Australia, which issued $100 million in convertible bonds to support the launch of the “Solana Capital Strategy”. According to the company, the plan aims to generate profits through a combination of on-chain and derivatives strategies.

The broader market conditions also exert pressure on market sentiment. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday increased concerns about rising inflation and weak US labor markets, leading to a 1% decline in the NASDAQ index, which is primarily composed of tech stocks. Since Sunday, risk-averse sentiment has led to a loss of $178 billion in the value of cryptocurrencies.

There are currently no clear signs that SOL traders expect prices to test again at $200 based solely on negative perpetual futures financing rates. According to DefiLlama’s metrics, the Solana network continues to lead in terms of transaction volume and number of active addresses, while also ranking second in terms of total locked value (TVL). As risk appetite gradually increases, these metrics reinforce the expectation that prices could rebound.