欧洲刑警组织：量子抗性加密钱包升级可能需要数年

European law enforcement agencies warn: Dealing with quantum computing threats will take years of preparation, and the crypto industry should act immediately.

Europe's top law enforcement agencies have warned that upgrading cryptocurrency wallets to withstand future quantum computer attacks may take years. The agency urged the crypto industry to start preparing immediately rather than waiting for the threat to actually arrive.

The European Cybercrime Center (EC3), a subsidiary of the European Criminal Police Organization (Europol), has issued a new warning aimed at cryptocurrency developers, exchanges, wallet providers and policymakers. The agency pointed out that if quantum computers become powerful enough to crack current encryption technology, private keys located within cryptocurrency wallets will become the main target. The private key is the secret code that authorizes transactions and proves ownership of funds.

Quantum computers work differently from the machines we use today. In theory, a quantum computer powerful enough could back-derive the private key from a public wallet address, giving an attacker full control of other people's funds. Europol pointed out that the blockchain hash function, as an underlying accounting technology, is relatively resistant, but wallet keys do not have this feature.

Why anti-quantum upgrades take years instead of weeks

欧洲刑警组织明确表示，“具备密码学意义”的量子计算机——即足以破解钱包加密的计算机——的确切时间表仍然未知。但该机构表示，不确定性并非重点。“适应系统和协调安全升级需要时间”，欧洲刑警组织呼吁进行前瞻性规划，而不是在最后一刻仓促应对。

任务的规模解释了为何需要如此长的时间。例如，将比特币网络升级为使用抗量子签名，需要迁移区块链上的每一个未花费交易输出（UTXO）。根据Unchained的报道，欧洲刑警组织的分析估计，仅升级每个比特币UTXO就至少需要76天的累计处理时间，前提是假设将全部区块容量用于迁移。

最低累计迁移停机时间：76天

这是升级每个比特币UTXO的报告估算值；实际的协调时间可能会有所不同。

如果仅分配四分之一的区块容量用于迁移，相同的过程将延长至约300天。该数字仅涵盖处理时间，尚未包括协调钱包开发者、交易所、托管商和个人用户实际转移资金所需的数月或数年时间。

In addition, there are scale issues. The new anti-quantum-signature scheme standardized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) produces signatures 10 to 120 times larger than Bitcoin's existing ECDSA signatures. Larger signatures mean more block space is consumed per transaction, which can drive up fees during the migration. NIST finalized three post-quantum standards in August 2024, called ML-KEM, ML-DSA, and SLH-DSA. Some experts estimate that capable quantum devices may appear within a decade.

This is not the first time Europol has issued an alert. The agency has been building quantum threat analysis against cryptocurrencies in its series of publications, each adding technical details about migration risks.

What this means for cryptocurrency holders

For ordinary holders, Europol instant messages are not panic. There are currently no trusted quantum computers that can crack wallet encryption. The warning is about the long-term advance needed to make ecosystems safe before the situation changes.

The problem is that migration cannot be done overnight and cannot happen without the services people rely on. If you hold Bitcoin or Ethereum on an exchange or software wallet, both the wallet provider and the underlying blockchain network must support the new quantum-resistant address format before you can move funds to safety. Europol recommends a phased transition and coordinated upgrades between protocols, wallets and users.

At the time this market snapshot was collected, Bitcoin was trading at $81,409 and had a market value of approximately $1.64 trillion, highlighting how much value depends on the security of wallet keys.

Bitcoin Price: US$81,409

This market snapshot is for background information only; it is not a forecast.

The actual steps for current holders are simple: keep wallet software updated, pay attention to any migration notices issued by wallet providers or exchanges, and avoid storing funds for long periods of time in wallets that expose public keys. Don't move money just out of fear, but don't ignore it when you receive official migration guidance.

Europol's warning is in line with Europe's broader regulatory model. The EU has been tightening regulation of cryptocurrencies through frameworks such as MiCA. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has set a January 8 deadline for EU companies to withdraw from non-MiCA stablecoins, demonstrating regulators 'willingness to take decisive measures on security and compliance issues. Quantum threats add a longer-term technical dimension to this situation.

Developers and exchanges should treat Europol reports as a planning document rather than as fire alarms. The agency recommends starting compatibility testing now, building cryptographically agile systems to exchange cryptographic algorithms without rebuilding the entire protocol, and coordinating upgrade schedules with blockchain governance bodies before quantum threats become specific. The window for preparation is open, but Europol's core message is that it will not be open forever.