比特币在8个月来最强周线收盘后陷入停滞

Bitcoin fluctuated within a narrow range around US$86,000, and the rebound in U.S. bond yields weakened upward momentum.

After Wall Street opened on Monday, Bitcoin fluctuated within a narrow range around US$86,000, failing to continue last week's rise, mainly due to the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields. Although Bitcoin had previously hit its highest weekly close since late January, resistance above $86,000 and the broader interest rate environment prevented buyers from pushing further.

Trading data tracked by Cointelegraph/TradingView showed that BTC/USD failed to decisively regain its weekly opening price near US$86,500, and the market's attention turned back to long-term yields. Glassnode's on-chain analysis also pointed to cooling market conditions, noting that "aggressive upward momentum" has weakened compared to the beginning of the month.

Core Points

• Key points blocked: At the beginning of the U.S. trading session, Bitcoin encountered rejection at its weekly closing price around US$86,570 and failed to break through its weekly opening price around US$86,500.
• U.S. bond yields rebound: The 30-year U.S. bond yield returned above 5.67%, close to the 24-year high set last week; the 10-year yield rebounded to around 5.31%.
• QCP Capital's view: Even if the employment data is weak, it is not enough to appease the bond market in the context of high oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty.
• On-chain signal cooling: Glassnode报告称，尽管比特币守住了9月的涨幅，但近期的链上信号显示“激进上行动能”正在减弱。
• 重要阻力位： 2026年的年度开盘价87,570美元仍是比特币价格行为的重要上方阻力位。

收益率回升，比特币受制于周线水平

根据Cointelegraph引用的TradingView数据，在创下1月底以来的最高周收盘价后，BTC/USD继续难以突破86,500美元附近的周开盘价。周一的交易时段呈现出较小的价格波动，并在约86,570美元的周收盘价附近遭遇拒绝。

随着比特币涨势停滞，宏观变量再次成为焦点——特别是由国债收益率暗示的利率预期。30年期收益率再次越过5.67%，仅比上周触及的24年高出几个基点。与此同时，10年期收益率回归至5.31%，而上周的高点约为5.34%。

这对交易者至关重要，因为较高的长期收益率通常会提高持有风险资产的机会成本。即使单个经济数据点指向“鸽派”方向，如果其他领域的不确定性持续存在，投资者可能仍会要求更高的收益率。QCP Capital在其市场评论中强调了这一问题。

QCP：疲软的就业数据不足以稳定市场

In a report released by QCP Capital, the company believes that recent weak U.S. employment data has not ultimately stabilized the bond market. The QCP points to broader constraints on limiting risky assets, including high oil prices, persistently high long-term yields and continued geopolitical uncertainty.

QCP Capital wrote in its latest market analysis: "Despite the dovish bias in employment data, high oil prices and high long-term yields continue to limit the upward momentum of a wide range of risky assets."

QCP's view helps explain the actual behavior of the market: Bitcoin faces headwinds when interest rates and inflation-related expectations fail to cool down simultaneously. As a result, even during brief periods of improved sentiment when individual data releases are released, Bitcoin may remain range-bound.

Wall Street stabilizes, traders focus on FOMC signals

U.S. stocks opened moderately higher on Monday, with the S & P 500 index up about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index up about 0.7%, reflecting the cautious optimism of stock traders. According to Cointelegraph's report on trading settings, market participants also appeared to be concerned about expectations that the Federal Reserve may suspend further rate hikes at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 28.

However, bond traders remain sensitive to the Fed's communications. CNBC reported that Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the September FOMC meeting minutes scheduled to be released on Wednesday may have higher weight due to the bond selling environment.

As a Deutsche Bank analyst quoted by CNBC as saying: "The turbulent bond market makes upcoming U.S. data and Fed communications particularly relevant." The minutes may help clarify how the committee defines the tightening cycle and its discussion of neutral interest rates-estimates of which were raised in September's SEP (Economic Forecast Summary).

For cryptocurrency investors, this is a reminder: Bitcoin's short-term trend may still be closely linked to interest rate expectations. Even if stocks show early strength, continued yield pressure may limit the extent to which liquidity is transferred to high-beta assets.

On-chain signals show weakening momentum

Although the price trend appears cautious, on-chain indicators indicate that the intensity of recent buying behavior is not as strong as that of the strongest stage of the round. Glassnode described the phenomenon in its Weekly Market Pulse released Monday as a reduction in visible "aggressive upward momentum."

Glassnode characterizes this behavior as moderation rather than a clear trend reversal or structural exhaustion. In other words, the analysis suggests that buyers have not disappeared, but the forces that previously pushed momentum seem to have softened.

Glassnode wrote in Monday's Weekly Market Pulse that this behavior "reflects the easing of aggressive upward momentum and does not signal an immediate trend reversal or structural exhaustion."

The company also pointed out that although profit-taking activity remained "hot", Bitcoin successfully held on to its September gains. Cointelegraph previously reported that long-term holders (LTHs) holding more than $85,000 in bitcoin have become a key area of concern-consistent with the current pattern of prices struggling to break through nearby resistance levels while remaining stable.

From a technical perspective, the 2026 annual opening price of around $87,570 remains an important upper resistance level, serving as a psychological threshold that could determine whether Monday's range tightens and breaks through, or shifts to testing lower support again.

What to pay attention to next

Bitcoin's next directional movement may depend less on the internal crypto catalyst and more on whether U.S. bond yields continue to fall or continue to climb to recent peaks. Traders are likely to pay close attention to the upcoming September FOMC minutes for clues on the evolution of the Fed's view on neutral interest rates and the pace of tightening, while also watching whether buyer dominance on the chain returns or remains sluggish near key resistance levels such as the 2026 annual opening price.