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ETH Robinhood Layer-2 网络活跃度显著下滑，十亿美元资金仍滞留应用内
尽管用户仍有超过 10 亿美元的资金停留在其应用中，但 Robinhood Layer-2 网络的活跃度正急剧下降。这一现象为该链定于 12 月 31 日实施的收费截止日期带来了一次决定性的考验。
数据揭示的放缓趋势
根据对 growthepie 数据的分析，从 10 月 2 日至 10 月 8 日，Robinhood Chain 的平均每日交易量为 620 万笔，较 9 月中旬的 1080 万笔下降了 42%。与此同时，每周现货交易量下跌 21%，至 74.5 亿美元；而该网络借贷和交易应用中的存款总额则上升至 10.4 亿美元。
这种放缓标志着市场态势的转变。在 9 月份，尽管网络费用大幅崩溃，但交易量仍接近历史新高。如今，各项活跃度指标本身也开始走低，且该链最热门的产品不再增长。
最新一周，日均活跃地址数约为 32.2 万个，较 9 月中旬下降 31%。用户每天支付的网络费用约为 6.5 万美元，较前一周下降 39%。这仅占该链在 9 月初最繁忙一天所收取的 800 万美元的一小部分。在 10 月 2 日至 8 日期间，现货交易所处理了 74.5 亿美元的交易量，低于前一周的 94.6 亿美元，其中 Uniswap 占据了约 77% 的份额。
为何资金并未撤离
These declines do not prove that users are abandoning the network. One person can control multiple addresses and automated trading programs can generate thousands of transactions, so the decline in the number of active addresses may exaggerate the decline in individual users.
Despite weakening trading activity, in-app deposits in the chain rose by about 2% in the past week to US$1.04 billion, and the supply of stablecoins also rose slightly to about US$1.1 billion. This shows that funds have not been withdrawn, but that transactions have been reduced frequently. In addition, perpetual contracts are still growing: according to DefiLlama data, the rolling seven-day average volume reached approximately US$7.35 billion, an increase of 26%. This suggests that some traders are turning to leveraged products after Robinhood began offering cryptocurrency perpetual contracts in late September.
Impact of the December 31 charging deadline
Bernstein's notes were reportedly quoted as showing that Robinhood retained about 90% of its network fees, so the reduction in transaction volume directly reduced brokerage revenue. In an effort to revitalize, Robinhood extended a promotion promising to waive swap network fees of more than 50 cents by December 31. At the same time, trading platform Arcus will start issuing additional reward points for stock token swaps starting from October 1.
Just last month, the network still generated more daily app revenue than Ethereum, but this advantage relies on fee activity that is currently fading.
Follow-up Focus
促销活动的到期时间是关键观察点。在 12 月 31 日之前，通过 Robinhood Wallet 进行的超过 50 美分的互换实际上免费，因此当前的交易量部分反映了激励措施而非有机需求。现货交易是否能在用户开始自行承担费用之前恢复，以及永续合约的增长能否抵消现货交易的放缓，将决定当前的下滑是暂时的降温还是更持久的动能丧失。
Robinhood 于 7 月推出了该链，旨在让人们通过链接以太坊的应用程序交易代币并进行借贷，并计划推出与股票和基金挂钩的代币的全天候交易。一旦促销费用结束，能否恢复活动以维持这一雄心，将是未来发展的关键。
