Bitcoin has just seen its second, stronger "golden cross": what does this mean

Bitcoin started strongly: Economic data was unexpectedly positive, and technical signals were sent out with strong bullish signals

Bitcoin started trading this week with a strong momentum. Although key resistance levels have not yet been exceeded, investors still have reason to remain optimistic. In early trading on Monday, the top cryptocurrency traded around $86,100, rising 1.14% in 24 hours, and its market value reached $1.73 trillion. The total value of the entire cryptocurrency market was US$2.94 trillion, up 1.36% on the day. The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 68 points, still in the "greedy" range, and shows signs of stabilizing emotions after falling back from "extreme greed" last month.

The trigger for the market rally was Friday's jobs report-an "ugly" report for the economy. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, only about one-third of what economists expected. Unemployment rose slightly to 4.2%.

data further exacerbated the pessimism. Employment data in July was revised from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000, and in August it was revised downward from an increase of 162,000 to an increase of 133,000. Annual wage growth also cooled to 3.0%. This is bad news for workers, but good news for risky assets. This is the seemingly contradictory mathematical logic of this cycle.

On September 16, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, raising interest rates to the range of 3.75%-4.00%. In the week leading up to Friday's report, bond traders gave a 64% probability of an October rate hike. After the report was released, this probability dropped to approximately 16%-22%, depending on the data snapshot. This is the exact opposite of last month: on September 4, due to strong employment data in August that exceeded expectations and expectations for interest rate hikes rose, causing Bitcoin to fall sharply by more than 2% to nearly US$79,300. Today, Bitcoin is traded at about 8% above that level.

The stock market was equally elated. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed at 7,722.72 on Friday, up 0.73%; the Nasdaq Index rose 1.19% to 27,190.86; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49% to 51,176.96. Nvidia hit a record high, and stock index futures also rose slightly late Sunday.

Altcoins perform differently. Ethereum was quoted at US$2,711, up 0.59%; Ripple (XRP) was quoted at US$1.51, up 0.81%; and Solana fell slightly 0.91% to US$120.31. Although the top ten altcoins are all popular, except for Hyperliquid, none of them have increased by more than 1%. Hyperliquid rose 3.68% to $93.17 on the day, with a weekly gain of 6%.

ETF capital inflows have not subsided. Decrypt data showed that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of US$189.84 million on the latest trading day, with total net assets reaching US$101.1 billion.

图表揭示了市场的犹豫情绪。在日线级别上，87,354 美元的高点仍是需要攻克的关键阻力位。不过，动能依然强劲。衡量近期涨幅与跌幅相对强度的相对强弱指数（RSI），在 0-100 的尺度上评分为 64.7。通常认为高于 70 为超买，当前读数虽热但未达到极端超买状态。衡量趋势强度（无论方向如何，高于 25 即为强趋势）的平均方向性指数（ADX）为 43.4。

指数移动平均线（EMA）跟踪设定天数内的平均价格，并给予近期数据更多权重。当较快周期的 EMA 上穿较慢周期的 EMA 时，即形成“金叉”。图表显示，50 日均线（过去 50 天的平均价格）已位于 200 日均线之上，这是经典的金叉形态。这一现象出现在 9 月中旬，当时比特币创下了该月度历史第二佳表现。

但更强烈的看涨信号刚刚出现：100 日均线现已穿越 200 日均线。你可以在下方的图表中看到这一点，其中虚白线代表 100 日均线。为何 100/200 均线交叉更具看涨意义？因为更难造假。剧烈的两月反弹可能将 50 日均线拉升至 200 日均线之上，但要使较慢的 100 日均线穿越 200 日均线，比特币价格必须在数月内维持高位。这意味着 BTC 不仅从 7 月低于 60,000 美元的低位反弹，而且重建了其中期趋势。

These two crossings mean that both the short-and medium-term moving averages are above the long-term moving averages. This can be seen as a second confirmation of the same story. It should be noted that the EMA is lagging, so the Golden Cross confirms the trend that has occurred rather than predicting future trends.

On Myriad, a forecast market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders tend to be bullish and push gains in the short term. In the October high market, the probability of hitting $87,500 is priced at 80%,$90,000 is 59%,$95,000 is 25%, and $100,000 is 12%.

As for future catalysts, this week's calendar is short but dense. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September meeting at 2:00 pm EST on Wednesday (October 7), and the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 14. The next policy meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to be held on October 27-28, and a press conference will be held on October 28 at 2:30 pm.