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BTC BIT's on-chain cycle model shows long term regression, and five indicators are moving forward simultaneously.
BIT (Bitcoin Intelligence Toolbox)'s on-chain cycle model has maintained Bitcoin's long positions at 67% for two consecutive months. Currently, five indicators in the model have entered areas historically associated with bull markets. This reading indicates potential signs of recovery in Bitcoin's market cycle, but given the recent price drop of $7,000 and the fact that two key on-chain price levels have not yet stabilized, the market remains likely to weaken further.
Five major indicators are increasing, and the model increases exposure
According to data released by BIT on October 9, its rules-based model will be adjusted from 100% net long positions to 33% on October 1, 2025, and then dropped to zero on December 1. During most of the subsequent correction, the model remained at this low level until September 1, 2026. At present, this allocation ratio has been maintained for two consecutive months. BIT pointed out that five indicators have entered historically bullish areas at the same time, and this combination last appeared in October 2025.
The first is the Short-term Realized Price of Bitcoin, which estimates the average cost of purchasing units in the near future. BTC fell below that level to US$112,300 in October 2025, but jumped above US$68,800 in August 2026. The indicator currently stands at US$74,319, making Bitcoin's price above its cost basis.
The second indicator is the True Market Mean, which tracks the cost base of active capital. The current value is US$77,460, while according to the latest data, the price of BTC is approximately US$82,000. BIT believes that if transactions continue to exceed this threshold, bullish judgment will be strengthened.
The remaining three indicators are:
- Market Capital-to-Realization Value Ratio (MVRV): Compare market value to realized value, and the ratio is currently 0.20.
- Net unrealized gains and losses (NUPL): measures investors 'book gains and losses and turned positive for the first time since October 2025.
- Days of value destroyed (VDD): Tracking the flow of coins based on their age and value, the indicator has also turned bullish.
However, BIT also issued a warning that since some indicators have not yet turned higher and others have just exceeded the threshold, the model has not fully invested in long positions. In addition, the company pointed out that if prices continue to fall below short-term realized prices and real market averages, this will be an early warning signal that recovery momentum has been lost.
Bitcoin pullback test bullish on-chain reading
The improvement signals sent by the model contrast with Bitcoin's recent price movements. As mentioned earlier, data shows that Bitcoin is trading at approximately US$82,000 at the time of writing, down 4.5% in seven days and more than 32% in the past year.
Bitcoin fell sharply by nearly $7,000 after failing to break the $87,000 mark. The decline is closely related to factors such as the U.S. government's transfer of a large amount of BTC to Coinbase Prime, the total outflow of spot ETF on October 7 and 8 reaching US$731 million, and realized gains due to profit-taking exceeding US$1 billion.
